peter Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Hi I'm just having a bit of a think about the future and was wondering what others think. Looking 10 years ahead...LED sources will be commonplace for cyc lighting and washlights. Profiles will be around, but I think they'll only just be starting to take off. The control standard will be virtually limitless - control desks will have an ethernet output, all fixtures will be attached and will self-patch. The concept of operating modes and DMX addresses will be all but gone.Power consumption in theatres will be minute compared to todays draw. Discharge and LED sources will run at tungsten colour temperature (I'm not a physicist - this might be impossible, but it would be nice !) or even better, variable colour temperature at source.Fixtures will be equipped with a camera to map the stage, so instead of a cue programming a fixture to Pan 63% and Tilt 32%, it will be programmed to move to the truck USL. Obviously it will be slightly more complicated than this, but I'd anticipate something along these lines anyway."No Moving Parts" moving heads. Okay, well not quite, but moving heads with two motors - Pan, and Tilt. Everything else is done via a series of LCD screens, similar to the DL-1, but much brighter. Automation will become cheap and quiet. Truss moves will no longer be the thing of large-budget tours.Pipe dreams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lightnix Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 LED sources will be commonplace for cyc lighting and washlights. Profiles will be around, but I think they'll only just be starting to take off. Agreed. LEDs have a long way to go before they can compete with even a 500w tungsten source. Low power arc sources with mechanical dimming may be an alternative as tungsten becomes more scarce. The control standard will be virtually limitless - control desks will have an ethernet output, all fixtures will be attached and will self-patch. The concept of operating modes and DMX addresses will be all but gone. There is no doubt in my mind that the front end of lighting systems will become ever more powerful, as described. I'm not sure how self-patching would work to the satisfaction of all, surely the LD / operator will still need to decide on how the rig should be laid out across the desk and will have to make some kind of patch list at some point. I think it will take much longer than a decade for DMX to die out, though. Just look at the amount of decades old kit that hangs in UK venues today. Ethernet may become the standard protocol, but I'm sure there will be DMX conversion nodes out on the rig for a loooooong time to come. Power consumption in theatres will be minute compared to todays draw.Agreed, and not just in theatres, but everywhere. Certainly on the lighting front, as the efficiency and brightness of LEDs improve, less power will be required. I am confident that in the next decade, dimmer racks will become a smaller part of the system and will eventually disappear altogether; the same goes for generators. It may even be that some buildings opt to run some of their systems (beginning with, say emergency lighting) from solar / wind charged batteries, which will probably be just as heavy and ugly to lift as any dimmer rack, now I think of it. Discharge and LED sources will run at tungsten colour temperature (I'm not a physicist - this might be impossible, but it would be nice !) or even better, variable colour temperature at source.It's not without the realms of possibility, although warm white LEDs can only currently simulate tungsten. Fixtures will be equipped with a camera to map the stage, so instead of a cue programming a fixture to Pan 63% and Tilt 32%, it will be programmed to move to the truck USL. Obviously it will be slightly more complicated than this, but I'd anticipate something along these lines anyway.I think that will be a luxury option, rather than a standard item for some time to come. It may a nice toy, but it just isn't necessary IMHO. "No Moving Parts" moving heads. Okay, well not quite, but moving heads with two motors - Pan, and Tilt. Everything else is done via a series of LCD screens, similar to the DL-1, but much brighter.Absolutely. Automation will become cheap and quiet. Truss moves will no longer be the thing of large-budget tours.<{POST_SNAPBACK}>The price will certainly fall, but whether that will be to the point where the technology becomes an everyday item remains to be seen. And now a little fantasy of my own \9although it may take a little longer than ten years to happen)... A while back, I read an article about initial American research into a new generation of unmanned spy planes. Unlike today's beasts, these would be about the size of a human hand, maybe eventually shrinking to insect size over time. Almost immediately a peaceful application for this technology popped into my head... :P Flying Lights :P The Mk.1 system might be "mirror based", with each plane carrying a small mirror. These would be tracked by moving lights on the floor. Eventually, the Mk.2 system would be launched, with self-contained LED light sources. More powerful planes would make for bigger lights and the range could be expanded. Just imagine... You take your place for the Spice Girls' 25th anniversary reunion tour. There appears to be no lighting rig over the stage. The houselights dim, the music begins and suddenly the whole rig of some 500 fixtures flies over the entire audience from the rear of house and settles into the first state. Come the chorus, four lights fly down to each Spice Girl and circle their heads, before whooshing off into a ballyhoo pattern over the whole auditorium for the middle eight. And that's just for starters... At the end of the show, the operator hits a "Summon Boxes" cue and the motorised flight cases trundle out to the preset positions they were given on The In. Once in position, the operator hits the "Pack Up" cue and all the lights fly home to their respective boxes, which trundle off to the truck when full. Well ? Oh, OK then... free hard hats for the audience :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketil B Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 [*]LED sources will be commonplace for cyc lighting and wash-lights. Profiles will be around, but I think they'll only just be starting to take off.Yes. [*]The control standard will be virtually limitless - control desks will have an ethernet output, all fixtures will be attached and will self-patch. The concept of operating modes and DMX addresses will be all but gone.I think it will go more along the lines of DMXa, because of having to be back compatible with DMX. [*]Power consumption in theatres will be minute compared to todays draw.Maybe but there will still be allot of tungsten still about. [*]Discharge and LED sources will run at tungsten color temperature (I'm not a physicist - this might be impossible, but it would be nice !) or even better, variable color temperature at source.CTC gel is cheeper than R&D. [*]Fixtures will be equipped with a camera to map the stage, so instead of a cue programming a fixture to Pan 63% and Tilt 32%, it will be programmed to move to the truck USL. Obviously it will be slightly more complicated than this, but I'd anticipate something along these lines anyway.No but I do think there will be more desks with time line editing. [*]"No Moving Parts" moving heads. Okay, well not quite, but moving heads with two motors - Pan, and Tilt. Everything else is done via a series of LCD screens, similar to the DL-1, but much brighter.Yes but not in-till LED profiles become able to compete with tungsten or discharge lamps. [*]Automation will become cheap and quiet. Truss moves will no longer be the thing of large-budget tours.Maybe but a ton will still be a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinmonk Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 I-VisionUK's Sunstar Product offers variable colour temperature from LED Lighting http://www.ivisionuk.com/content/public/ca...asp?product=322 quite bright as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter Posted January 20, 2005 Author Share Posted January 20, 2005 :D Flying Lights :P <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Along those lines, what about a system where as well as Pan and Tilt, you have an X,Y reference for each fixture, so it can locate itself anywhere within the lighting grid, on wires. Obviously it would be a tremendously costly setup, but imagine being able to have a rig with say 20 fixtures, and being able to focus a light from any direction on anywhere on stage from any direction, at the press of a button. Thinking about it, it wouldn't be that technically challenging to implement - some 230v rails, some rails carrying data, and fixtures with some sort of tracking mechanism. © Peter Kirkup :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketil B Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 :D Flying Lights :PYou have to call them "Sky Hooks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew C Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 More and more restrictive legislation. Not only that, but the existing H&S legislation will continue to be mis-applied by people afraid of getting sued if they think for themselves. Along the lines of "You can't rig lights unless you have a full 17th Edition qualification". "You can't use ladders in a theatre, you must scaffold the whole auditorium to change that lamp." "Sorry, you can't scaffold anything, you don't have an engineering degree." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Baldwin Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 :D Flying Lights :P <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Along those lines, what about a system where as well as Pan and Tilt, you have an X,Y reference for each fixture, so it can locate itself anywhere within the lighting grid, on wires. Obviously it would be a tremendously costly setup, but imagine being able to have a rig with say 20 fixtures, and being able to focus a light from any direction on anywhere on stage from any direction, at the press of a button. Thinking about it, it wouldn't be that technically challenging to implement - some 230v rails, some rails carrying data, and fixtures with some sort of tracking mechanism. © Peter Kirkup :P<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Sorry, Peter, but it's been done already - at least to an extent. I forgot who did it, but several years ago I read an article in L&SI about a tour in Japan, where upstage were three rectangles of truss (with rounded corners), suspended vertically. A number of moving lights tracked around the trusses, as part of cued sequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slim_mcslim Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 I have seen the future.... It is Pat 252's - Ripple Wheels and solar 250's - and people will call it "retro" and people will remember how quaintly they had played with LED's for years before giving up and deciding that a steel chassid box that reaches temperatures dangerous to human health* are the way forwards. With control down newly invented 36 core cable perfect for a mulitple control application... * as a side note, I can see traditional lighting fixtures becoming illegal on H&S grounds because they get so hot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lightnix Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 More and more restrictive legislation. Not only that, but the existing H&S legislation will continue to be mis-applied by people afraid of getting sued if they think for themselves. Along the lines of "You can't rig lights unless you have a full 17th Edition qualification". "You can't use ladders in a theatre, you must scaffold the whole auditorium to change that lamp." "Sorry, you can't scaffold anything, you don't have an engineering degree."<{POST_SNAPBACK}>Maybe not that far-fetched. Don't forget: ten years ago the Institute of Structural Engineers tried to push for regulations which would have required all temporary structures (including things like rostrum blocks and conference stages), to be designed by a structural engineer. The drawings would then have to have been checked over by a second structural engineer. There would have needed to be a third structural engineer on site to oversee the rig, who could have then called on a fourth structural engineer to perform load tests :P :P :blink: :blink: Don't laugh - it very nearly happened. Luckily the PSA had just been launched and immediately set about the task of dealing with the relevant Government departments, who allowed them to write a whole chapter of exemptions for the live events industry. Otherwise... :D This is not intended as a piece of PSA propaganda, all trade associations have a part to play in intercepting ludicrous regulations, but they will only be able to do so if the people they are trying to represent take an active interest in what's going on, put their hands in their pockets and join up. Personally I don't regard less than a day's freelance pay as too great a sum to pay to help protect all the other days' pay I stand to lose if pig-ignorant politicians have their way with my business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stu Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Personally I think we're in for an interesting 10 years, wether I stick around to see it all I don't know... Anyway, I've had a few thoughtsPersonnel I can personally see regional theatres becoming more multi-skilled in their staffing, and less departmentalized. Less chains of command, less people to tell the management what to do.A slight watering down of skills due to the aforementioned point. You can't expect people to become geniuses in their chosen trade if they have to spend a week showing films.The biggest shows (i.e. West End and Touring Musicals, coupled with subsidised theatre) will be the only shows that have a proper budget and crew allocated to them, purely for the fact they are the only ones who can afford it.More theatres to either close, or spend long periods dark.Crews (both touring or resident) becoming expected to work over and above the call of duty in order to get shows up. Technology / EquipmentMore use of LED technology which can only be a good thing, for the points mentioned by others in this thread.I seriously think sometimes we can't be that many years off a new radical design of the trusty Fresnel. Be it a company such as Strand or Robert Juilat deciding to make something for the 21st Century which is as good as the 743, or utlising new lamp, reflector, coating (etc) technologies in order to bring out a Fresnel which uses a GKV600 (for instance) but still providing the same light as a traditionally lamped T19 743 or T29 Cantata F.One would hope a 1kw 4 cell flood unit which you could actually gel up easily... Hires / Hire CompaniesMore companies to merge in order to save on costs. Which in turn makes the market smaller and probably less competitive which does us no good but there you go.Perhaps hire rates might go up to reflect the 21st Century. After all someone once said on here Par 64s are still at 1989 prices (£7 a week, obviously)... Did Inflation pass this industry by?!Just some ideas! Stu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lightnix Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Crews (both touring or resident) becoming expected to work over and above the call of duty in order to get shows up.I'm not so sure about that. I know for certain of two companies who now risk assess for crew fatigue. Their method statements make it clear that nobody is to work more than 12 hours on site. I'm not sure how much they wanted to do this, I reckon it's more to do with the fear of being sued by somebody who's been worked into the ground and then had an accident. One would hope a 1kw 4 cell flood unit which you could actually gel up easily...Ooh yes, that would be nice :P More companies to merge in order to save on costs. Which in turn makes the market smaller and probably less competitive which does us no good but there you go.Perhaps hire rates might go up to reflect the 21st Century. After all someone once said on here Par 64s are still at 1989 prices (£7 a week, obviously)... Did Inflation pass this industry by?!<{POST_SNAPBACK}>It doesn't look like it's going to happen just yet, although I'm sure that smaller companies will be bought out by bigger ones. Prices have been discussed hither and yon for ages. Everybody agrees they are too low and damaging the business, but still nobody can resist stiffing the competition by undercutting. If it was me, I'd do the same, but only to a point. Having driven the competition's prices down to the ground I'd pull out of the bidding war, leaving them stuck with a cheap, crappy show to risk their reputation on, while I dealt with clients who had some proper money :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew C Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 [*]Crews (both touring or resident) becoming expected to work over and above the call of duty in order to get shows up.Stu<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Nothing new here then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smeggie Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 they already just change the call of duty to suit the 'above and beyond' for the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyF18 Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Any thoughts on what sound technology will be doing in future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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